Predicting Grocery Access After a Hurricane

A full bathtub and stockpiled cans should never be the only way a community plans for disasters. Post-disaster food access largely depends on the uninterrupted functioning of local food retailers. Understanding how disasters disrupt and alter food access during the initial steps of the recovery process can inform food systems and disaster planning.

In "Food Access After Disasters: A Multidimensional View of Restoration After Hurricane Harvey" (Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 90, No. 3) Nathanael P. Rosenheim, Maria Watson, John Casellas Connors, Mastura Safayet, and Walter Gillis Peacock surveyed food retailers after Hurricane Harvey in three Texas counties.

Finding Food After The Hurricane

The authors analyzed supply-side disruptions and the restoration of food access after Hurricane Harvey, a category 4 hurricane that made landfall in Texas in August 2017. Five to eight months after Hurricane Harvey, teams conducted in-person surveys with owners or managers of sampled stores.

Stratified sampling allowed the authors to compare retailers in and outside of food deserts and floodplains. The survey collected information on Harvey's effects on the store's property, personnel, and products, as well as the length of time a store was closed, had reduced hours, or stopped selling fresh food items.

The authors' models suggest that stores may be less dependent on utilities than expected. Each day without electricity resulted in 0.4 more days of closure and 1.2 days of reduced hours, while a day without water would only reduce hours.

Meanwhile, disruptions to the supply chain resulted in nearly eight additional days without fresh dairy or bread. Large supermarkets and combination stores operated at reduced hours for significantly longer durations compared with their smaller counterparts. Large grocery chains and national combination stores were especially prone to extended periods of reduced hours.

The authors note that delays in restoring fresh bread and dairy were mainly driven by supply chain issues and transportation infrastructure. Stores in food deserts had fresh dairy and bread available 1.6 days earlier.

The authors found that focusing solely on store closures and property damage would underestimate the days residents had limited access to fresh food by nearly two weeks. Stores in low-income areas with limited supermarket access, or food deserts, were closed longer, exacerbating existing inequalities.

Coordination in the Food System

This study shows that using multiple measures offers a clearer view of food access after a disaster. Addressing vulnerabilities in food retail can improve disaster planning. Planners should consider the timing of resources like D-SNAP and gaps in fresh food access as vendors resume operations. Subsidizing fresh food supplies is crucial during extended supply chain disruptions.

To plan for a more equitable food supply after a disaster, planners should embrace multiple dimensions of access, encourage retailer mitigation, and assess the types of retailers and their distribution within their communities.

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