Dealing With Uncertainty? Here’s How

If you feel like the world has gotten a little more "fluxy" lately, you are probably right. And you are definitely not alone. We are living in a time of constant disruption, shaped by shifting political dynamics and changes in federal policy that could impact our work as planners and our personal lives. This is all unfolding against the backdrop of a "polycrisis" — overlapping challenges that seem to come at us from every direction.

What does all of this bring? One word: Uncertainty.

Uncertainty has become the defining topic of daily life, and it's been a recurring theme we've heard from you during APA listening sessions. We are all trying to navigate uncertainty. And let's be real: it can feel heavy; it's a mental and emotional burden as we try to go about our lives. It weighs even more when we are tasked with planning for livable communities.

And yet, to move forward, we can learn to let go of certainty and embrace uncertainty.

Applying Scenario Planning to Navigate Uncertainty

How can we do that? Easier said than done, you think? One approach that helps is scenario planning, which is a strategic tool that lets you explore different ways that the future could unfold. It allows you to make sense of uncertainty, imagine how current disruptions might play out in the months or years ahead, and better prepare for the risks and opportunities that come with them.

Here is how to get started:

1. Start with uncertainty

As a first step, make a list of the critical uncertainties you encounter. Ask yourself the following questions:

• What uncertainties do I see?
• How could these uncertainties impact me, my work, and my community?
• What are plausible trajectories of these uncertainties (think in extremes)?

Example:

• Uncertainty: Federal funding for affordable housing
• Impact: If funding stops, affordable housing projects will be harder to build.
• Range: From "funding continues as planned" to "funding is completely cut," and everything in between.

2. Prioritize what keeps you up at night

Focus on the uncertainties that matter most by assessing:

• Impact: How significant would the consequences be?
• Probability: How likely is this to affect me, my work, or my community?

3. Imagine the future

Use your imagination skills and the Axes of Uncertainty method to explore different future scenarios based on your top two uncertainties.

For each of these futures, answer the following questions:

• What does this future look like?
• What are the key risks (and possible opportunities)?
• What can you do today to prepare for these futures, mitigate the risks, and leverage the opportunities?

The Axes of Uncertainties method is a useful tool to create future scenarios based on critical uncertainties. Illustration by Cynthia Currie.

4. Take control of what's next

Now that you've explored what might happen, it's time to act. To take control over these risks instead of having them control you:

• Identify actions that mitigate risks and leverage opportunities
• Prioritize your risk mitigation solutions, focusing on:
  • Red flags: major threats or warning signs
  • No-regret actions: low-risk actions that can be beneficial in any future scenario

And then? Start putting the top priorities into action.

Scenario planning won't make uncertainty go away, but it can help you navigate uncertainties more effectively and make you feel more comfortable dealing with them.

Top image: Getty Images - E+ Eoneren