benefits of compact, mixed use development

This article looked at the impact of 6 different growth scenarios on 142 urban areas. These scenarios included the establishment of urban growth boundaries that would limit development to infill, geographical expansion but at a constant density, and 4 degrees of low density expansion. The authors predicted total vehicle kilometers travelled (VKT) based on total population and population density projections by the U.S. Census. Emissions projections incorporated scenarios of technological progression such as the proliferation of hybrid vehicles, synfuels, continued dominance of conventional gasoline, etc. They found that in all scenarios total VKT would increase, but that in the infill only scenario VKT per capita does not increase. The authors suggest that should conventional sprawl development continue unabated, the increase in VKT and VKT per capita could offset potential emissions gains from technology advances.