Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios

Journal of the American Planning Association, 86:3, 311–323, 2020

By: American Planning Association, Robert Lempert

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01944363.2020.1727766

Scenario planning

This article demonstrates using robust decision making (RDM) for long-range transportation planning. The article presents RDM as a complementary approach and potential replacement for current approaches in scenario planning. The article describes the full RDM process using the existing regional transportation and land use plan of the  the Sacramento, California region. The article finds that the ability of the regional transportion plan to achieve its stated goals are largely based on factors that are assumed constant by traditional scenario analyses; using the RDM process challenges these assumptions. The article then demonstrates how planners can test policy responses by exploring how different combinations of VMT (vehicle miles travelled) fees and ZEV (zero emission vehicle) policies can make Sacramento's regional transportation plan less vulnerable to uncertainties.