Gasoline Is So Yesterday

By Allen Best

Unlikely as it may seem, Lusk, Wyoming (pop. 1,567), is on the cutting edge of car technology. It's the county seat of Niobrara County, the least populous county in the nation's least populous state. It's also home to a proprietary Tesla Motors charging station — located next to the swimming pool at Lusk's Covered Wagon motel.

Drivers of the all-electric Model S sedan can charge enough in 40 minutes to sustain another 200 to 250 miles of travel. As of early February, several months after the charging station was installed, nine drivers had done so. To the disappointment of the Covered Wagon, none stayed overnight.

Lusk represents one dot in Tesla's effort to create a supercharging "highway" across North America. By early this year, 74 stations had been installed in a route between Fort Myers, Florida, and Vancouver, British Columbia. Also on the path are Angola, Indiana (pop. 8,162), Santee, South Carolina (pop. 740), and Gallup, New Mexico (pop. 20,209).

In January, John Glenney, a retired professor of biochemistry from Lexington, Kentucky, and his daughter Jill traveled through Gallup in his Tesla Model 6 in what is believed to be the first coast-to-coast all-electric trip. Gallup is located on what was once Route 66, a national highway that opened in 1926, just as Americans were acquiring cars in large numbers.

Nearly all those cars had internal combustion engines fueled by gasoline. Glenney saw his journey as a repudiation of that past. "I feel like I've made my own contribution to the movement of getting off of fossil fuels," he told one California newspaper.

Eyeing the options

Whether driving electric is truly getting off fossil fuels is another matter entirely. Nearly all of Wyoming's electricity comes from coal, and renewables produce just a small portion of New Mexico's. But changes are happening in transportation fuels, and Tesla's supercharging stations are just a flamboyant part of it.

Natural gas is the larger story in Oklahoma. There the surge is driven by the lower cost and growing availability of natural gas, plus the desire for "energy security," meaning a source independent of mouthy foreign governments. In West Virginia, the explosion in hydraulic fracturing has yielded a natural gas byproduct, propane — another alternative to gasoline. And California has the nation's most natural gas fueling stations plus a strengthening market for electric cars.

Until recently, service stations delivered only two fuels, gasoline and diesel. Now, some stations in California also sell propane, natural gas, ethanol — and electricity. Soon, another fuel will be added to the mix in some locations: the hydrogen used in fuel cells. California is investing $100 million in fueling infrastructure in an attempt to drive that market. Toyota and Hyundai have taken the bait. They are introducing electric-drive cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells.

How long will it take to make this transition? Twenty to 40 years, says Jeremy Grantham, cofounder and chief investment strategist of Boston-based GMO, one of the world's largest money management firms. The shift could come more quickly. "One can easily see that in 10 years there could be a new world order in cars," he wrote in Barron's, the financial publication.

Among those rooting for the shift is Dan Sperling. An international expert on transportation technology, fuels, and policy, in 1991 he founded the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. Last year, he was awarded the Blue Planet Prize, called the environmental Nobel.

Sperling says continued dependence on oil will be ruinous. "It threatens our environment and the future of the human race," he said when he received the prize in Tokyo. Because of the prodigious emissions of greenhouse gases, the risk to the climate is intolerable. Today, 20 percent of all greenhouse gases in the world are tied to transportation, he says. In the U.S., according to the Environmental Protection Agency, it's 28 percent.

But he cautions against expecting too much, too soon. Because of the fast-paced improvements in drilling technology, U.S. oil prices have stabilized at around $100 a barrel. The high prices of oil alone won't drive innovation and change, he says.

Electric cars on the move

Consider electric cars. Consumers can pick from 14 models of either all-electric or plug-in hybrids. Sales have jumped since 2011, when Nissan introduced the all-electric Leaf. That year there were 10,000, while in 2013 there were 97,000. But this compares to 15.6 million sales of cars and light trucks in 2013. Adding sales of plug-in hybrids like the Chevy Volt and Ford Fusion Energi swells the numbers to 3.81 percent of the total sales, up from 2.23 percent of sales two years before. Market penetration remains "rather incremental and modest," says Sperling.

Sperling hopes that Africa, China, and other developing places can be more sensible about land-use choices and hence rein in their transportation impacts. In the U.S., the die is mostly cast, he says. While some land-use choices remain, he believes that emphasis should be put on improving technologies.

But no clear winner is evident. Instead, Sperling prescribes a portfolio. "We need battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles and hydrogen and biofuels and better land-use management and startup companies offering new types of mobility services and more rational financing and pricing of roads and parking — and much more," he said in accepting his award in Tokyo.

Price points

Price continues to be the primary driver in fuel switching. In West Virginia, the state government has encouraged school districts to convert buses to propane, a byproduct of drilling in the Marcellus shale. Long term, it should stay cheaper than gasoline.

"It's a fuel produced here in West Virginia," adds Jeff Herholdt, director of the state's Division of Energy. Fueling infrastructure costs $100,000 per station because propane has little pressure — 100 pounds per square inch as compared to 3,000 pounds for natural gas.

Oklahoma is the nation's fourth leading producer of natural gas behind Texas, Louisiana, and Wyoming. "It's clean, affordable, abundant, and American," says Jay Albert, the state's deputy secretary of energy. Oklahoma, he says, can boast of more CNG (compressed natural gas) fueling stations per capita than any other state: nearly 100, three-quarters of them public. Kum & Go, the convenience store chain, and Love stations offer natural gas.

State governments have been pushing the conversion. Oklahoma Gov. Mary Fallin and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper signed a memorandum of understanding in 2011, now endorsed by 22 governors, promising their states would buy more CNG-equipped vehicles if manufacturers lowered costs. They have.

A three-quarter-ton CNG-enabled Ram pickup used to cost $36,000, says Albert. With 242 ordered by Oklahoma's state government and more from other states, Dodge has lowered the price to $30,000. That's still $6,000 more than gasoline-powered models, but Oklahoma expects to save $6,000 to $10,000 in fuel costs over the lifetimes of the pickups, according to Albert. Last August in Oklahoma, natural gas was selling for $1.19 per gallon, while gasoline was at $3.45. Even if natural gas prices double, the CNG vehicles will still save Oklahomans money, he adds.

Oklahoma communities have also been converting to new fuels. Using federal funds designated to reduce congestion and improve air quality, the Tulsa suburb of Sand Springs purchased a CNG-equipped Honda Civic. It's made a believer out of Vernon Smith, administrator of infrastructure planning, who says his city of 19,000 has also bought a home-compressing unit. The units allow natural gas, such as in lines for home furnaces, to be compressed into tanks for use in cars and trucks.

For emergency responders, CNG requires a new knowledge set. "If you have a wreck, there are certain things you need to do and certain things you shouldn't do," says Smith. "It's not something any Tom, Dick, or Harry should try to do on their own, such as turning the fuel off."

Fueling stations, however, are quite safe. If CNG escapes, it dissipates quickly instead of pooling on the ground, as gasoline will do, says Albert. "It's really a very, very safe fuel. It operates on a closed system, so that you don't have gas vapors, like you have VOCs (volatile organic compounds) from gasoline."

Delivery details

Gasoline stations get their fuel from delivery trucks, but natural gas fueling stations must be connected to pipelines. Arnold says he also foresees a time when home owners can install fueling stations in their garages, tapping natural gas pipelines installed for heating. The units now cost $3,000, but Whirlpool and other manufacturers are trying to improve designs and lower costs.

Natural gas has replaced diesel in many fleet vehicles. LA Metro has converted 99 percent of its buses to CNG. Dallas Area Rapid Transit officials say they expect to reduce fuel expenses by 60 percent between 2012 and 2020.

In Atlanta, cost is also driving conversion of fleets for Coca-Cola, AT&T, and other major corporations from diesel to CNG. And the 100 or so shuttles at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport have also converted to CNG.

In DeKalb County, located on the northwest side of the Atlanta metropolitan area (pop. six million), landfill methane is being tapped to produce CNG to operate trash trucks. As a result, annual fuel costs for the fleet have dropped from $6 million a year to $1.5 million. The landfill methane is expected to last for 50 years. (Capturing that methane for use also keeps it from escaping into the air — an added bonus.)

Happily noting these shifts is Don Francis, coordinator for Clean Cities-Georgia. "In the past, one or two fuels met all your needs," Francis says. "Either you ran on gasoline or you ran on diesel. Now, we will match the fuel to the application. . . . School districts are moving to propane because it saves them $1.40 a gallon. For corporate fleets, it's often CNG. We even have one long-haul trucker, which daily makes runs to Mississippi, that uses LNG (liquid natural gas)."

Evangelists

While his program is fuel agnostic, Francis calls himself an EVangelist, borrowing the acronym for electric cars. Most of his family worked for General Motors, as he himself once did. When he was young, he also raced Corvettes, the ultimate in gas-powered muscle cars. Now, he sees electric drivetrains as the future — at least for personal use — because of their efficiency. "The electric-drive vehicle is the end game," he says.

Atlanta certainly has been shining in sales. Last year, it became the number four market overall in the nation for plug-in electrics and number two market for Leafs. "They were being sold as they were being taken off the truck," says Francis. And alternative fuels are more available, as Atlanta's utilities have diversified.

Batteries, bulky and expensive, are one weakness of electric cars. The Teslas passing through Lusk, Wyoming, must have enough battery storage to reach the charging stations in Cheyenne, 160 miles away. The Nissan Leaf has smaller batteries and a range of 70 miles. Yet costs have been dropping rapidly in the last 20 years, says Francis. Within 10 years, he adds, batteries for Leaf-sized electric cars may drop by half or even more. "But then again, who knows what chemistry breakthrough might occur," he adds.

Already, electric vehicles make sense for many drivers — especially as charging infrastructure expands. Half of the commuters in metro Atlanta drive 40 miles per day or less. Those cars also sit 21 to 22 hours a day. Mostly, they sit at home or at work. "That's where 80 to 90 percent of our charging will occur," Francis says.

In metropolitan Denver, Alex Schroeder, transportation technology deployment manager for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, has been driving an all-electric car for work commutes. Gas stations now seem an oddity to him. "It's like going to the video rental store," he says. "It's just not something I do anymore when I can just pop into Netflix at home."

Siting charging stations

How many charging stations should be required in parking lots? While helping community planners in the 26 counties that constitute metropolitan Atlanta, Francis consulted his colleagues in the Clean Cities program around the country to see what they're recommending. The average is 3.5 to five percent of parking spaces. Atlanta also consulted Raleigh, North Carolina, a leader in vehicle charging infrastructure. Raleigh has developed codes and standards for charging stations while also installing 30 stations at city-owned buildings. The city has also prepared training videos for electrical inspectors and others who need to know what is required to install charging stations in public locations.

Like Raleigh, many municipalities are now installing electrical conduit into the sidewalks in shopping districts, leaving open the option of installing charging stations later. Colorado's Boulder County is among the local governments that now require charging infrastructure in parking lots. Still to be worked out is the appropriate mix of slow-, medium-, and fast-charging stations.

California drives many changes. The state is a big market — the world's 12th largest economy. Because Congress in 1970 elected to allow California to set its own policies to address pollution, California has been able to move more briskly to accelerate changes. And finally, California has little auto manufacturing of its own and no coal industry, leaving the political space for policies that foster technological innovations.

California's progress has been slower than Sperling and many others had hoped. A 1990 mandate that the largest automakers doing business in the state offer zero-emissions vehicles fell short, as was documented in the movie Who Killed the Electric Car? Not until 2011, when the Nissan Leaf debuted, was the intent realized.

California's 2009 Low Carbon Fuel Standard has also pushed automakers to pursue innovations, and not just in California. Already nearly 200 alternative fuel and hybrid models of vehicles are now available.

Next up: hydrogen

Now, California is putting its broad shoulders behind hydrogen fuel cells. They also power electric-drive vehicles, but with the energy stored in the hydrogen fuel cells instead of batteries. The technology isn't new. Toyota began working on fuel-cell cars 20 years ago. But like battery-powered electric cars, hydrogen fuel cells weren't popular. Why would manufacturers build fuel-cell cars when so few people bought them? And why would people buy them when there was no place to fuel them?

To get over this hump, California has allocated $200 million for installation and operation of fueling stations during the next decade. The California Fuel-Cell Partnership plans 68 fueling stations that will be available to the public, mostly in the Los Angeles Basin and the Bay Area, with connector stations in places like Santa Barbara and Palm Springs.

Automakers are responding

Honda began leasing its hydrogen-powered FCX Clarity to customers in California starting in 2008, and Hyundai this year began offering the Tucson. Toyota also intends to enter the market — hoping to pare the price of vehicles to between $50,000 and $100,000. General Motors, Ford, and BMW are also working on fuel-cell vehicles.

Fuel-cell electrics can travel 300 miles and refueling takes just three to seven minutes, making them comparable to gasoline-powered cars. Virtually nothing comes from the tailpipes except a tiny bit of vapor. They're also quiet and, when the occasion requires, speedy. But like battery-driven electrics, the fuel cells are only as good as the fuel stock. So far, natural gas has been the primary base fuel for creating hydrogen.

Some transit agencies are already powering buses with hydrogen fuel cells. One of them, AC Transit, serves 13 cities in the Oakland-Berkeley area. In 2009, it sought — and obtained — a fueling station in Emeryville, a city of 10,000 residents and 20,000 workers. The town is located at the foot of the Bay Bridge. Charles S. Bryant, AICP, director of planning and building, says the city rezoned the property to allow the hydrogen fueling station, but what he remembers most vividly is the occasion when a valve malfunctioned and escaping hydrogen caught fire.

Emeryville firefighters detoured traffic on adjacent streets, impacting businesses such as the Pixar animation studios for several hours. There was no need. Hydrogen does not have the same combustibility as gasoline. Damage was minimal.

Almost without exception, the fueling stations of the future will present few of the problems that have plagued gasoline stations. Charging stations don't have underground storage tanks, which can leak and pollute groundwater. Aging natural gas pipelines do pose problems in some places, but the fuel, once released, tends to dissipate much more readily than gasoline.

More choices, more vehicle types, more alternative fuels — that seems to be the future. For community planners, this presents more to think about, more implications to consider. It's not for lack of oil, however, which is likely to be used for centuries more. But now, it will have competitors.

Allen Best writes about natural resource issues from Denver.

---

---

Resources

Zero-Emission Vehicles in California: Community Readiness Guide: www.ca-ilg.org/sites/main/files/file-attachments/zev_guidebook.pdf

Center for Energy and Climate Solutions Plug-in Electric Vehicle Dialogue Initiative: www.c2es.org/initiatives/pev

Natural gas vehicles: www.ngvc.org

Electric vehicles: www.goelectricdrive.org

U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center: www.afdc.energy.gov

Clean Cities: cleancities.energy.gov

California Fuel Cell Partnership: cafcp.org

Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis: www.its.ucdavis.edu