Falling Birth Rates

Between 2022 and 2100, the U.S. Census Bureau projects U.S. population growth to be just 9.7 percent. While 2012 population projections estimated over 420 million people by 2060, data from the 2020 Census lowered this estimate by 13 percent. This slowdown is largely driven by an aging population and a national birth rate that reached a record low of 1.62 births per woman in 2023. Forty-seven percent of U.S. adults in 2023 said they are unlikely to ever have kids, up 10 percentage points since 2018, according to Pew Research Center. Nearly all racial and ethnic groups have experienced declining birth rates, though the Hispanic population continues to have the highest among all.

Though the DINK (Dual Income, No Kids) trend has gained traction on social media, politicians across the spectrum are proposing various solutions to increase fertility rates. These range from conservative pronatalism movements to ideas such as per-child tax credits or direct payments and limits on childcare costs. Many factors driving declining birth rates reflect positive societal advancements over recent decades, however, such as fewer teen pregnancies, access to reproductive health services and college education, and increased pay equity between women and men. Additionally, research shows that one of the most effective personal methods for reducing greenhouse gas emissions is having one fewer child.

Though politicians may be calling for higher birth rates, raising children poses both financial and emotional challenges. Research highlights that climate change exacerbates these difficulties. Exposure to extreme heat has been linked to various reproductive health issues, such as complications with menstruation, conception, and childbirth. Meanwhile, access to maternal care is becoming increasingly difficult. A growing number of U.S. hospitals are closing their obstetric units, forcing many patients, especially those from rural communities or communities of color, to travel greater distances for prenatal and postpartum care. Furthermore, childcare has become one of the most significant fixed expenses for many households, especially as pandemic-era federal support dwindles. For planners, these trends call for helping communities support families by improving access to health care, childcare, schools, and family-friendly services.